Is Roku Inc (ROKU) Headed For a Near-Term Reversal?

Roku Inc (ROKU) shares have seen the Money Flow Indicator climb above 60, potentially spelling a near-term reversal if it crosses above the 70 line.  The Money Flow Indicator is a unique indicator that combines momentum and volume with an RSI formula. Because of its incorporation of volume, the MFI is better suited to identify potential reversals using both overbought/oversold levels and bullish/bearish divergences. As with all indicators, the MFI should not be used by itself. A pure momentum oscillator, such as RSI, or pattern analysis can be combined with the MFI to increase signal accuracy.

The MFI was created by Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack and they believed a reading above 70-80 would signify Overbought territory where a reading below 20-10 would indicate that the conditions were indicative of an Oversold price level.

Investors may be searching for stocks that are undervalued. Scanning the markets during obvious pullbacks may be one strategy, but it may take a more concerted effort to identify these names if the market decides to climb further. Getting caught up in the details from news and various economic reports may leave the average investor dizzy and confused. Focusing on the most important data sets may be helpful when trying to muffle all the noise. Heading into the next quarter, investors will be watching which companies are experiencing positive earnings momentum. Often times, earnings that vastly beat expectations may cause the stock to skyrocket. Filling the portfolio with stocks experiencing positive earnings momentum may be a popular choice. Investors may want to look a little bit deeper into the situation to make sure that the momentum is justified. Some investors may already be adept at figuring this out while others may need to put in a bit more work. 

Taking a further look into the shares from a technical standpoint, Roku Inc (ROKU) presently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 76.86. Typically, the CCI oscillates above and below a zero line. Normal oscillations tend to stay in the range of -100 to +100. A CCI reading of +100 may represent overbought conditions, while readings near -100 may indicate oversold territory. Although the CCI indicator was developed for commodities, it has become a popular tool for equity evaluation as well.

The 14-day ADX for Roku Inc (ROKU) is currently sitting at 37.50. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would indicate a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would signal a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would indicate an extremely strong trend. The ADX is a technical indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder used to determine the strength of a trend. The ADX is often used along with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of the trend.

Moving average indicators are used widely for stock analysis. Many traders will use a combination of moving averages with different time frames to help review stock trend direction. One of the more popular combinations is to use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Investors may use the 200-day MA to help smooth out the data a get a clearer long-term picture. They may look to the 50-day or 20-day to get a better grasp of what is going on with the stock in the near-term. Narrowing in on Moving Averages, the 200-day for Roku Inc (ROKU) is at 46.38, the 50-day is 40.05, and the 7-day is resting at 38.39. The RSI is computed based on the speed and direction of a stock’s price movement. The RSI is considered to be an internal strength indicator, not to be confused with relative strength which is compared to other stocks and indices. The RSI value will always move between 0 and 100. One of the most popular time frames using RSI is the 14-day. The 14-day RSI is presently standing at 55.97, the 7-day sits at 62.36, and the 3-day is resting at 53.22.

Investors may be watching other technical indicators such as the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. The Williams %R is a momentum indicator that helps measure oversold and overbought levels. This indicator compares the closing price of a stock in relation to the highs and lows over a certain time period. A common look back period is 14 days. Roku Inc (ROKU)’s Williams %R presently stands at -27.01. The Williams %R oscillates in a range from 0 to -100. A reading between 0 and -20 would indicate an overbought situation. A reading from -80 to -100 would indicate an oversold situation.

Some investment professionals believe that a great way to find, study, and invest in equities without getting completely overwhelmed, is to have a systematic and research driven approach. Of course, the same approach may not work for everybody. One investor may find one way that works for them, and another investor might find something completely different when it comes to portfolio picking. Trading and investing can carry a major emotional component. Even after careful research, being able to pull the trigger on a trade may still involve squashing the fear that comes with the thought of being wrong. Finding continued success in the stock market may entail keeping the portfolio balanced, but also finding the courage to get in when necessary, or get out when needed. Developing this confidence may take a lot of practice and determination.